Five Quick Hits
* Brock Lesnar announced his retirement following a one-sided loss at UFC 141. Mixed martial arts is more interesting with Brock in the sport, but it was the right time for him to go. He can't compete with top competition, and his heart hasn't seemed to be in it recently.
* Beginning around the time of his loss to Cain Velasquez, and progressing with his time as a coach on The Ultimate Fighter and his post-fight interview on Friday night, Lesnar has shown a much more human side than his previous heel persona. It's refreshing, but it also makes me feel a little guilty for my previous attitude toward him.
* Nate Diaz has lost two of his last four fights, and in the last two years he's only beaten one opponent of any note. He looked great against Donald Cerrone, but I don't see him as a serious part of the title discussion at 155 right now.
* Jimy Hettes looked great against Nam Phan, but I think the fight said more about Phan, who has gotten demolished twice in a row now, than about Hettes. What will Hettes do against someone he can't take down? We still don't know.
* In hindsight, what's the most impressive win of Lesnar's career? I say Frank Mir at UFC 100. Randy Couture and Heath Herring were way past their primes, and Shane Carwin embarrassed Lesnar before gassing out.
***
The UFC put on some terrific cards in 2011, and Bellator has offered some really exciting ones, too. But nothing compares to the annual New Year's Eve show at Saitama Super Arena. It's as much spectacle as sport, but I mean that in the best way possible. The show featured elaborate entrances, a slam KO, cross-dressing, a pair of title fights, crazy screaming lady Lenne Hardt, the greatest heavyweight mixed martial artist of all time, some really bizarre pro wrestling, one of the two best female fighters on the planet, and much more.
There were some brutal fights on the card, including two guys who briefly looked like they might be dead, and another who could repeatedly be heard gurgling his own blood. If you had a friend you wanted to introduce to MMA, this absolutely would not be the right card to show them. But for any serious fan of the sport, it's mandatory viewing.
Dream's 2011 New Year's Eve card, Genki Desu Ka!, featured a dozen MMA bouts, two kickboxing matches, one mixed-rules kickboxing/MMA contest, and four pro wrestling performances. It began with a :42 victory for Yusup Saadulaev, who slammed Hideo Tokoro on his neck, resulting in an immediate knockout. I was afraid Saadulaev had killed him. The ref was extremely late stopping the fight, one of the worst risks to fighter safety I've ever seen in MMA. Fortunately, Saadulaev wasn't interested in injuring his opponent, actually stopped and looked at the ref, who encouraged him to keep punching the unconscious Tokoro.
F?dor Emelianenko's knockout of judo Olympian Satoshi Ishii was almost as brutal. F?dor didn't even follow his opponent to the ground after connecting. He knew it was over. But probably the most nausea-inducing fight was Shinya Aoki's five-round victory over his former friend Satoru Kitaoka. Aoki didn't snap anyone's limbs this time, but he broke Kitaoka's nose, and the microphones clearly picked up Kitaoka gurgling his blood. Several times. Nasty stuff.
In less disgusting action, Megumi Fujii and Bibiano Fernandes showed everything we've come to expect from them, and Hiroyuki Takaya made the most of a title defense against a seemingly disinterested Takeshi Inoue, who was repeatedly warned for inaction. I wish Zuffa and Bellator had something like the yellow card system used in Japan. I mean, I guess Zuffa kind of does, with those mysterious backstage bonuses the fighters receive, but it's not the same thing.
January 2012 UFC Rankings
The rankings below are exclusively for the UFC, so you won't see names like Josh Barnett or Michael Chandler on these lists. I know there are widespread rumors concerning Strikeforce fighters moving to the UFC, but until they have fights officially set, they're not ranked here.
Heavyweight (206-265 lbs)
1. Junior Dos Santos
2. Cain Velasquez
3. Alistair Overeem
4. Frank Mir
5. Shane Carwin
6. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
7. Roy Nelson
8. Brendan Schaub
9. Cheick Kongo
10. Fabricio Werdum
Make it Happen: Velasquez vs. Mir
Zuffa has confirmed that it is folding the Strikeforce heavyweight division into the UFC, which makes a lot of sense. Until the Grand Prix finalists arrive, though, this division remains very thin at the top. Velasquez is easily a top-four heavyweight, and Mir has won three in a row, including an incredibly impressive performance against Nogueira. This works as a number one contender's bout.
Thank You, UFC, For: Dos Santos vs. Overeem
A note of clarification regarding the rankings: I think this is a terrible matchup for Dos Santos. Overeem's quality of competition has been so unsteady that it's not easy to compare to him to someone like JDS, who has faced a murderer's row the last couple of years. But Dos Santos is first and foremost a striker, and in that respect, I believe he's outclassed by Overeem, who has more power and diversity to his striking attack. If I had to guess, I'd say Overeem, who relinquished the Strikeforce, Dream, and K-1 Heavyweight titles before joining the UFC, also becomes a UFC champion in 2012.
Light Heavyweight (186-205)
1. Jon Jones
2. Dan Henderson
3. Maur?cio "Shogun" Rua
4. Lyoto Machida
5. Rashad Evans
6. Quinton "Rampage" Jackson
7. Phil Davis
8. Alexander Gustafsson
9. Forrest Griffin
10. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Make it Happen: Rich Franklin vs. Stephan Bonnar
An exciting matchup of two fan favorites, it works whether this is Bonnar's next match or he takes another beforehand. These two should meet in the cage at some point, and it should happen before either of them reaches the phase of rapid decline or retirement.
Thank You, UFC, For: Evans vs. Davis
I feel bad for Evans that his title shot keeps getting put off, but I'm glad the UFC gave him a competitive fight rather than just leaving him on the shelf. I know I've ranked Henderson a few slots higher, but if Evans wins this, he absolutely has to get his shot at Jones. Give Hendo a fight with Gustafsson or Machida, or the winner of Jackson/Bader. If Davis wins, though, I'd like to see Jones vs. Henderson and Davis vs. Machida or Rua.
Middleweight (171-185)
1. Anderson Silva
2. Chael Sonnen
3. Yushin Okami
4. Michael Bisping
5. Vitor Belfort
6. Mark Mu?oz
7. Demian Maia
8. Alan Belcher
9. Brian Stann
10. Jason "Mayhem" Miller
Make it Happen: winner of Bisping/Maia vs. winner of Belfort/Anthony Johnson
No matter who wins these fights, I think fans get a great matchup. I admit that Bisping vs. Belfort seems particularly interesting, but I'm also glad to see Johnson getting closer to his natural weight class (super-heavyweight) and Maia fighting someone he won't try to stand with.
Thank You, UFC, For: Bisping vs. Maia
Sonnen, Okami, Belfort, and Mu?oz were all spoken for. This was the only fight that made sense for Bisping right now.
Welterweight (156-170)
1. Georges St-Pierre
2. Nick Diaz
3. Carlos Condit
4. Johny Hendricks
5. Jon Fitch
6. Jake Ellenberger
7. Jake Shields
8. Martin Kampmann
9. Josh Koscheck
10. Diego Sanchez
I just noticed this, but there are no Brazilians among the elites in the UFC's welterweight division. Paulo Thiago's not bad, but his best win (Koscheck) came three years ago. He's 3-3 since then. There are some young guys who might have bright futures, but no one who's really established himself in the UFC. It's weird. The Brazilians are rebuilding at lightweight, too. Among Brazilians, who's the best 155er in the world? Gleison Tibau? Edson Barboza? JZ Cavalcante? Patricky Freire?
Make it Happen: Hendricks vs. winner of Kampmann/Thiago Alves
Hendricks just knocked out a guy who had only lost once in the last nine years, to St-Pierre. Hendricks' only career loss, to Rick Story, was a questionable decision. He deserves to keep fighting top competition, and with another win or two, he would deserve an opportunity to fight for the title.
Thank You, UFC, For: Diaz vs. Condit
Don't get me wrong, I am increasingly unhappy that GSP vs. Diaz keeps getting put off, but at least this is for the interim belt while GSP rehabs his knee. It was pretty shocking that Condit opened as the betting favorite for this fight. Other than maybe power and facial scar tissue, I'm not sure where he's better than Diaz. They have similar skill sets, but I think Diaz does almost everything a little bit better.
P.S. ? Don't get excited, gambling addicts. The line has moved substantially, and Diaz (-150) is now a solid favorite. Save your money for Overeem (+150).
Lightweight (146-155)
1. Frankie Edgar
2. Ben Henderson
3. Gray Maynard
4. Jim Miller
5. Kenny Florian
6. Anthony Pettis
7. Joe Lauzon
8. Melvin Guillard
9. Clay Guida
10. Evan Dunham
Make it Happen: Nate Diaz vs. winner of Dunham/Nik Lentz
Diaz has earned another fight against a ranked opponent, but let's not book him against the top of the division just yet. Would you bet on him against Dunham? I wouldn't.
Thank You, UFC, For: Miller vs. Guillard
Two exciting fighters looking to prove their recent losses were flukes. I'm also pleased with Pettis vs. Lauzon. Thanks, Joe Silva.
Featherweight (136-145)
1. Jose Aldo
2. Chad Mendes
3. Erik Koch
4. Dustin Poirier
5. Diego Nunes
6. Robert Peralta
7. Mark Hominick
8. Mike Brown
9. Bart Palaszewski
10. Diego Brandao
Make it Happen: Nunes vs. Chan Sung Jung
The Korean Zombie is coming off a 7-second knockout win over Hominick and the first twister submission in UFC history. It's time to let him prove he's among the best featherweights in the world.
Thank You, UFC, For: Palaszewski vs. Hatsu Hioki
This is an appropriate match to make after Hioki's unimpressive UFC debut. I was looking for Mike Brown to face Hioki, but Bartimus works, too.
Bantamweight (126-135)
1. Dominick Cruz
2. Urijah Faber
3. Brian Bowles
4. Miguel Torres
5. Renan Bar?o
6. Scott Jorgensen
7. Brad Pickett
8. Eddie Wineland
9. Michael McDonald
10. Takeya Mizugaki
Make it Happen: T.J. Dillashaw vs. John Albert
I know Albert is already booked against Ivan Menjivar, but I would have loved to see him fight Dillashaw, the reality show runner-up who earned the contemptuous nickname "Draft Dodger" for convincing his coaches to give him an easy road the finals by matching Albert against John Dodson. Give the kid a chance for revenge. Albert is a nice prospect, but Menjivar is not an easy fight. I think the kids from Season 14 are getting thrown straight into the deep end.
Thank You, UFC, For: Bar?o vs. Jorgensen
Bar?o is 27-1. He lost the first fight of his career, in April 2005. Since then, he's 27-0, including four wins in the WEC and UFC, most recently a first-round submission over Pickett. Jorgensen has won seven of his last eight, the loss coming to bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz. Whoever wins this match looks to have the inside track to a title fight.
Flyweight (116-125)
I'm not ranking this division until it has more than four fighters, but I expect Joseph Benavidez to become the first UFC flyweight champion.
UFC 142
Following a successful show in Rio last year, the UFC returns to Brazil on January 14. Jose Aldo defends his featherweight belt against Chad Mendes, Anthony "Rumble" Johnson makes his middleweight debut against Vitor Belfort, and my early pick for Fight of the Night pits Terry Etim against Edson Barboza.
Aldo has looked dominant in recent years, with convincing wins over proven opponents like Urijah Faber and Kenny Florian. But he also looked vulnerable against featherweight journeyman Mark Hominick, and he's never faced a wrestler like Mendes. If Aldo can keep the fight standing, he'll win easily, and it won't be pretty (in a good way). If Aldo can't stop the takedown, though, Mendes figures to come out ahead, and it won't be pretty (in a boring way). Aldo is reputed to possess terrific jiu-jitsu, but Mendes has been successful in the past neutralizing opponents with top control.
I'm picking Aldo, though, mostly because he has more ways to win. Mendes has never finished a legit opponent. He doesn't have dangerous ground and pound, he doesn't have good submissions. He has great takedowns, smothering top control, pretty good defense. But if he wins, it's by decision. Aldo could win a decision, too, but he could also win with his hands, with kicks, with ground and pound, with a submission. I don't know that Mendes can hold him off for 25 minutes.
You never know what to expect from Vitor Belfort, and Johnson has never fought at 185 before, so there are a lot of questions surrounding the co-main event. Johnson is a talented striker, but I don't think he wants to put that to the test against Belfort, so I'd look for an approach similar to his decision win over Dan Hardy: wrestling. But Belfort is more experienced and less one-dimensional than Hardy, with a ground game that could put Johnson in bad situations. He also possesses one-punch knockout power, while Hardy generally won by picking opponents apart.
Johnson has never faced an opponent of this caliber, apart from maybe Josh Koscheck, and when you add in the homefield advantage (home cage advantage?), this looks like a very tough matchup for Johnson. I'm picking Vitor. And I like Etim a lot, but the guess here is that Barboza improves to 10-0.
Most books haven't posted full odds beyond the headlining fights yet, but I've seen Erick Silva at -475 over Carlo Prater (+325) at 5Dimes, and even with that steep line, I like Silva. One parlay idea I'm looking at is: Aldo + Barboza + Silva + Rousimar Palhares. Matched up against Mike Massenzio at -500, Palhares is barely worth including in your parlay, but he's heavily favored for a reason. That parlay won't make you a millionaire ? you like living on the edge, put Prater and Massenzio in your parlay, see where that gets you* ? but the payout is probably about 200%, depending on the odds for Barboza.
* 18.5-to-1, I checked. Don't do it.
Source: http://www.sports-central.org/sports/2012/01/02/ufc_141_and_new_years_eve_in_japan.php
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